Reds at Cubs
Last play · Seiya Suzuki flies out sharply to center fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Cubs0%
CIN 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 6 – 3 CHC
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.4% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Héctor Rodríguez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Eugenio Suárez scores. Matt McLain scores. (inning 4) — -38% Reds
9Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (38) on a fly ball to right center field.7–5
8Nico Hoerner out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder JJ Bleday. Alex Bregman scores.7–4
7Sal Stewart homers (31) on a fly ball to center field.7–3
5Tyler Stephenson homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Elly De La Cruz scores.6–3
5Dane Myers homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.4–3
4Pedro Ramírez flies out to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Ian Happ scores. Nico Hoerner to 2nd. Throwing error by right fielder Héctor Rodríguez.3–3
4Héctor Rodríguez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Eugenio Suárez scores. Matt McLain scores.3–2
2Michael Conforto singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Ian Happ scores. Pedro Ramírez to 2nd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
