Brewers at Cubs
Last play · Cooper Pratt grounds out, shortstop Gabriel Arias to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
MIL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 0 – 9 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-103 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyrone Taylor homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Seiya Suzuki scores. (inning 1) — +17% Cubs
8Alex Bregman homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field.3–17
8Michael Conforto homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Miguel Amaya scores. Matt Shaw scores.3–16
8Andrew Vaughn singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Jackson Chourio scores.3–13
7Tyrone Taylor singles on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.2–13
7Matt Shaw homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Miguel Amaya scores.2–12
7Carson Kelly homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.2–10
7Cooper Pratt homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Lara scores.2–9
4Miguel Amaya walks. Tyrone Taylor scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. Carson Kelly to 2nd.0–9
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
