Brewers at Cubs
Last play · Matt Shaw challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Matt Shaw called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cubs0%
MIL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 3 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew Vaughn doubles (17) on a fly ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. William Contreras scores. (inning 6) — -31% Brewers
8Joey Ortiz homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Christian Yelich scores.9–4
7Sal Frelick singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. William Contreras scores. Jake Bauers out at 3rd on the throw, left fielder Ian Happ to third baseman Alex Bregman to shortstop Nico Hoerner.7–4
7William Contreras doubles (24) on a fly ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jackson Chourio scores.6–4
6Carson Kelly reaches on a fielder's choice out, shortstop Cooper Pratt to third baseman Joey Ortiz to second baseman Brice Turang. Nico Hoerner scores. Michael Busch out at 3rd.5–4
6Christian Yelich homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Sal Frelick scores.5–3
6Andrew Vaughn doubles (17) on a fly ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. William Contreras scores.3–3
5Cooper Pratt singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyrone Taylor. Luis Lara scores. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.1–3
4Nico Hoerner reaches on a missed catch error by pitcher Robert Gasser, assist to first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Tyrone Taylor scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
