Pirates at Cubs
PIT2–
CHC12Last play · Ryan O'Hearn flies out to center fielder Tyrone Taylor.
Win probability
Cubs100%
PIT 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 9 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+156 / -189
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Cubs favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Kelly doubles (15) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Ian Happ scores. Pedro Ramírez scores. (inning 2) — +20% Cubs
7Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a line drive to right fielder Jared Triolo. Pedro Ramírez scores. Carson Kelly to 2nd.2–12
6Tyrone Taylor out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Billy Cook. Michael Busch scores.2–11
6Michael Busch singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Seiya Suzuki scores.2–10
6Bryan Reynolds homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.2–9
4Alex Bregman homers (25) on a fly ball to left field. Seiya Suzuki scores.1–9
4Michael Busch out on a sacrifice fly to shortstop Konnor Griffin. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–7
4Seiya Suzuki singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Carson Kelly scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd.1–6
3Nico Hoerner flies into a force out, right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez to shortstop Konnor Griffin. Michael Busch scores. Ian Happ out at 2nd. Nico Hoerner to 1st.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.