Rays at White Sox
TB5–
CWS3Last play · Miguel Vargas pops out to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
White Sox0%
TB 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 1 CWS
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (4) on a line drive to left center field. (inning 9) — -41% Rays
9Taylor Walls walks. Jonathan Aranda scores. Richie Palacios to 3rd. Hunter Feduccia to 2nd.5–3
9Hunter Feduccia walks. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 3rd. Richie Palacios to 2nd.4–3
9Junior Caminero homers (4) on a line drive to left center field.3–3
8Everson Pereira homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.2–3
7Richie Palacios singles on a line drive to left fielder Sam Antonacci, deflected by third baseman Miguel Vargas. Cedric Mullins scores. Yandy Díaz to 2nd.2–2
6Edgar Quero hits a ground-rule double (1) on a line drive to left field. Chase Meidroth scores. Everson Pereira to 3rd.1–2
4Taylor Walls singles on a line drive to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Jonny DeLuca scores. Nick Fortes to 2nd.1–1
3Miguel Vargas homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.