Mariners at White Sox
SEA12–
CWS8Last play · Colson Montgomery strikes out swinging.
Win probability
White Sox0%
SEA 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 6 – 5 CWS
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-138 / +115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luke Raley hits a grand slam (7) to right center field. Josh Naylor scores. Randy Arozarena scores. J.P. Crawford scores. (inning 3) — -40% Mariners
9Randal Grichuk homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.12–8
8Tristan Peters doubles (2) on a soft line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Andrew Benintendi scores. Jarred Kelenic to 3rd.12–7
8Jarred Kelenic singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Miguel Vargas scores. Andrew Benintendi to 2nd.12–6
8Josh Naylor homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Brendan Donovan scores. Julio Rodríguez scores.12–5
7Luke Raley homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Randy Arozarena scores. J.P. Crawford scores.9–5
5Julio Rodríguez homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.6–5
3Colson Montgomery doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Sam Antonacci scores. Munetaka Murakami scores. Miguel Vargas scores.5–5
3Sam Antonacci singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Tristan Peters scores.5–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.