Mariners at White Sox
Last play · Cole Young grounds out, shortstop Colson Montgomery to first baseman Munetaka Murakami.
Win probability
White Sox100%
SEA 0%CWS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 5 CWS
White Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Colson Montgomery homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Sam Antonacci scores. (inning 1) — +17% White Sox
8Edgar Quero out on a sacrifice fly. Chase Meidroth scores. Jarred Kelenic to 3rd. Randal Grichuk out at 2nd. Edgar Quero to 1st.1–6
5Miguel Vargas homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
5Rob Refsnyder out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Mitch Garver scores.1–4
3Miguel Vargas homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Sam Antonacci scores.0–4
1Colson Montgomery homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Sam Antonacci scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
