Mariners at White Sox
Last play · Brendan Donovan grounds out to first baseman Munetaka Murakami.
Win probability
White Sox100%
SEA 0%CWS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 0 CWS
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-141 / +117
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Randal Grichuk homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — +35% White Sox
8Miguel Vargas out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Drew Romo scores.1–2
8Randal Grichuk homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
1Randy Arozarena singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tristan Peters. Julio Rodríguez scores. Josh Naylor to 3rd. Randy Arozarena to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder Tristan Peters.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
