Royals @ White Sox — Live Pitcher Fatigue & Win Probability

KC5–

CWS6

Final

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
KC	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2	5	5	2
CWS	0	2	1	0	2	0	1	0	·	6	10	0

Last play · Jac Caglianone strikes out on a foul tip.

Win probability

White Sox100%

KC 0%CWS 100%

First 5 (F5)

final

KC 3 – 5 CWS

White Sox led after 5

Total runs

opened 8

fair over 50% · hold 4.8%

Run line

+1.5

Moneyline

reference

-114 / -105

We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.

Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.

White Sox favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓

Biggest swing · Jarred Kelenic doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Starling Marte. Colson Montgomery scores. Andrew Benintendi scores. Jarred Kelenic out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Starling Marte to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to catcher Elias Díaz to third baseman Maikel Garcia. (inning 5) — +25% White Sox

9Bobby Witt Jr. homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Carter Jensen scores.5–6

7Colson Montgomery homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.3–6

5Jarred Kelenic doubles (1) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Starling Marte. Colson Montgomery scores. Andrew Benintendi scores. Jarred Kelenic out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Starling Marte to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to catcher Elias Díaz to third baseman Maikel Garcia.3–5

4Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a fly ball to center fielder Tristan Peters, deflected by left fielder Sam Antonacci. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Lane Thomas scores.3–3

4Nick Loftin out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Maikel Garcia scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd.1–3

3Chase Meidroth out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Lane Thomas. Miguel Vargas scores.0–3

2Drew Romo reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Tristan Peters scores.0–2

2Tristan Peters doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Starling Marte. Jarred Kelenic scores. Tristan Peters to 3rd.0–1

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.

Line score

The book's line

Win probability timeline

Scoring plays

Royals at White Sox