Cubs at White Sox
CHC10–
CWS5Last play · Sam Antonacci grounds into a double play, second baseman Nico Hoerner to shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch. Drew Romo out at 2nd. Sam Antonacci out at 1st.
Win probability
White Sox0%
CHC 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 3 CWS
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Vargas homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — +21% White Sox
9Jarred Kelenic homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.10–5
8Carson Kelly hits a ground-rule double (5) on a fly ball to right-center field. Alex Bregman scores. Seiya Suzuki scores. Matt Shaw to 3rd.10–4
8Matt Shaw walks. Michael Busch scores. Alex Bregman to 3rd. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.8–4
8Michael Busch walks.7–4
7Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a line drive to right fielder Jarred Kelenic. Seiya Suzuki scores. Matt Shaw out at home on the throw, right fielder Jarred Kelenic to catcher Drew Romo. Carson Kelly to 2nd.6–4
7Carson Kelly singles on a ground ball to third baseman Miguel Vargas. Alex Bregman scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Matt Shaw to 2nd.5–4
6Miguel Vargas homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.4–4
5Drew Romo doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Andrew Benintendi scores.4–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.