Cubs at White Sox
Last play · Nico Hoerner grounds out, second baseman Chase Meidroth to first baseman Munetaka Murakami.
Win probability
White Sox100%
CHC 0%CWS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 7 CWS
White Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-113 / -107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Vargas homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Sam Antonacci scores. Munetaka Murakami scores. (inning 1) — +24% White Sox
9Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Conforto scores.3–8
6Andrew Benintendi homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.1–8
6Miguel Amaya homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.1–7
5Munetaka Murakami homers (17) on a fly ball to center field. Sam Antonacci scores.0–7
3Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Colson Montgomery homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.0–5
3Munetaka Murakami homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
1Miguel Vargas homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Sam Antonacci scores. Munetaka Murakami scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
