Cubs at White Sox
Last play · Edgar Quero homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Chase Meidroth scores.
Win probability
White Sox100%
CHC 0%CWS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 4 CWS
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.3% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-132 / +109
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Conforto homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Alex Bregman scores. Seiya Suzuki scores. (inning 9) — -49% Cubs
10Edgar Quero homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Chase Meidroth scores.8–9
10Alex Bregman grounds out, shortstop Colson Montgomery to first baseman Munetaka Murakami. Dansby Swanson scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. Michael Busch to 2nd.8–7
9Michael Conforto homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Alex Bregman scores. Seiya Suzuki scores.7–7
8Tristan Peters homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Andrew Benintendi scores. Edgar Quero scores.4–7
5Miguel Vargas doubles (7) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Tristan Peters scores. Munetaka Murakami scores.4–4
4Andrew Benintendi doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Miguel Vargas scores.4–2
4Alex Bregman singles on a ground ball to second baseman Chase Meidroth, deflected by pitcher Sean Newcomb. Dansby Swanson scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd.4–1
2Edgar Quero singles on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Colson Montgomery scores. Andrew Benintendi out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong to third baseman Alex Bregman.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
