Tigers at White Sox
Last play · Miguel Vargas homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Drew Romo scores.
Win probability
White Sox100%
DET 0%CWS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 2 – 1 CWS
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rikuu Nishida out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Kyle Finnegan to first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Andrew Benintendi scores. Throwing error by first baseman Spencer Torkelson. (inning 9) — +42% White Sox
10Miguel Vargas homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Drew Romo scores.3–4
10Zack Short out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Rikuu Nishida. Matt Vierling scores.3–2
9Rikuu Nishida out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Kyle Finnegan to first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Andrew Benintendi scores. Throwing error by first baseman Spencer Torkelson.2–2
3Miguel Vargas doubles (9) on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Luisangel Acuña scores.2–1
3Dillon Dingler homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Zack Short scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
