Braves at White Sox
Last play · Braden Montgomery homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Andrew Benintendi scores.
Win probability
White Sox100%
ATL 0%CWS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 4 – 3 CWS
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-157 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Braden Montgomery homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Andrew Benintendi scores. (inning 10) — +39% White Sox
10Braden Montgomery homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Andrew Benintendi scores.5–6
10Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Ozzie Albies scores. Mauricio Dubón to 2nd.5–4
7Jacob Gonzalez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Eli White. Miguel Vargas scores. Andrew Benintendi to 2nd.4–4
4Braden Montgomery singles on a ground ball to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Jacob Gonzalez scores. Chase Meidroth to 2nd.4–3
3Miguel Vargas homers (16) on a line drive to left field. Sam Antonacci scores.4–2
3Dominic Smith grounds into a force out, first baseman Jacob Gonzalez to shortstop Luisangel Acuña. Ozzie Albies scores. Mauricio Dubón out at 2nd. Dominic Smith to 1st. Dominic Smith advances to 1st, on a missed catch error by pitcher Erick Fedde, assist to shortstop Luisangel Acuña.4–0
3Matt Olson homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field.3–0
1Matt Olson homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. Michael Harris II scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
