Astros at White Sox
Last play · Luisangel Acuña strikes out swinging, catcher Christian Vázquez to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
White Sox0%
HOU 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 5 CWS
White Sox led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cam Smith homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Christian Walker scores. (inning 6) — -31% Astros
9Christian Vázquez hits a ground-rule double (7) on a line drive to left-center field. Taylor Trammell scores. Cam Smith to 3rd.9–5
6LaMonte Wade Jr. walks. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd. Jose Altuve to 2nd.8–5
6Jose Altuve singles on a ground ball to shortstop Colson Montgomery, deflected by third baseman Miguel Vargas. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd. Isaac Paredes to 2nd.7–5
6Cam Smith homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Christian Walker scores.6–5
6Christian Walker doubles (20) on a ground ball to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve scores. LaMonte Wade Jr. scores.4–5
6LaMonte Wade Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd. Jose Altuve to 2nd.1–5
5Chase Meidroth doubles (18) on a fly ball to center fielder Lucas Spence. Braden Montgomery scores.0–5
5Tristan Peters pops out to third baseman Isaac Paredes in foul territory.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
