Astros at White Sox
HOU3–
CWS12Last play · Christian Vázquez called out on strikes.
Win probability
White Sox100%
HOU 0%CWS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 3 – 3 CWS
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Miguel Vargas homers (22) on a fly ball to left field. Sam Antonacci scores. (inning 6) — +31% White Sox
8Munetaka Murakami homers (22) on a fly ball to right center field.3–12
8Junior Perez homers (3) on a line drive to left field. Chase Meidroth scores.3–11
7Andrew Benintendi singles on a line drive to left fielder Zach Dezenzo. Munetaka Murakami scores. Braden Montgomery to 2nd.3–9
7Munetaka Murakami singles on a ground ball to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Drew Romo scores. Junior Perez scores.3–8
7Chase Meidroth homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.3–6
6Miguel Vargas homers (22) on a fly ball to left field. Sam Antonacci scores.3–5
5Taylor Trammell homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.3–3
3Munetaka Murakami grounds out, second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. Drew Romo scores. Sam Antonacci to 3rd.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.