Astros at White Sox
Last play · Braden Montgomery strikes out swinging.
Win probability
White Sox0%
HOU 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 0 CWS
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Paredes singles on a ground ball to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Cam Smith scores. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd. Fielding error by right fielder Braden Montgomery. (inning 6) — -39% Astros
9Colson Montgomery singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Miguel Vargas scores.4–1
8Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Jeremy Peña scores.4–0
6Isaac Paredes singles on a ground ball to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Cam Smith scores. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd. Fielding error by right fielder Braden Montgomery.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
