Reds @ White Sox — Live Pitcher Fatigue & Win Probability

CIN5–

CWS4

Final

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H	E
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	1	5	7	0
CWS	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6	0

Last play · Tristan Peters pops out to shortstop Elly De La Cruz.

Win probability

White Sox0%

CIN 100%CWS 0%

First 5 (F5)

final

CIN 1 – 4 CWS

White Sox led after 5

Total runs

7.5

opened 7.5

fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%

Run line

-1.5

Moneyline

reference

+138 / -148

We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.

Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.

White Sox favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓

Biggest swing · Tyler Stephenson singles on a line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Michael Toglia scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. JJ Bleday out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Braden Montgomery to first baseman Munetaka Murakami to shortstop Luisangel Acuña. (inning 8) — -34% Reds

10Elly De La Cruz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tristan Peters. Matt McLain scores.5–4

8Tyler Stephenson singles on a line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Michael Toglia scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. JJ Bleday out at 3rd on the throw, right fielder Braden Montgomery to first baseman Munetaka Murakami to shortstop Luisangel Acuña.4–4

8Elly De La Cruz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Matt McLain scores. Michael Toglia to 2nd.2–4

5Eugenio Suárez homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.1–4

4Sam Antonacci doubles (16) on a line drive to center fielder Dane Myers. Randal Grichuk scores. Edgar Quero to 3rd.0–4

4Miguel Vargas homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field.0–3

2Edgar Quero homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2

1Brenton Doyle homers (2) on a line drive to center field.0–1

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.

Line score

The book's line

Win probability timeline

Scoring plays

Reds at White Sox