Reds at White Sox
Last play · Sam Antonacci grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Sal Stewart.
Win probability
White Sox0%
CIN 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 8 – 5 CWS
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Stephenson homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 4) — -29% Reds
9Edgar Quero singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder JJ Bleday. Braden Montgomery scores.9–8
8Andrew Benintendi singles on a ground ball to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Edgar Quero scores. Sam Antonacci scores. Chase Meidroth to 3rd.9–7
6Eugenio Suárez hit by pitch. Sal Stewart scores. JJ Bleday to 3rd. Tyler Stephenson to 2nd.9–5
5Edgar Quero singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Braden Montgomery scores. Brenton Doyle to 2nd.8–5
4Tyler Stephenson homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart scores.8–4
4Sal Stewart singles on a line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Elly De La Cruz to 2nd.5–4
3Eugenio Suárez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Sal Stewart scores.4–4
2Randal Grichuk doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Héctor Rodríguez. Luisangel Acuña scores. Chase Meidroth scores.3–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
