Mets at White Sox
NYM10–
CWS5Last play · Chase Meidroth grounds out, third baseman Bo Bichette to first baseman Jared Young.
Win probability
White Sox0%
NYM 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 7 – 4 CWS
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Robert Jr. homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Carson Benge scores. (inning 3) — -21% Mets
9Luis Torrens homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Jared Young scores.10–5
7Luis Robert Jr. homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.8–5
6Sam Antonacci singles on a ground ball to third baseman Bo Bichette. Chase Meidroth scores. Tristan Peters to 3rd.7–5
5Braden Montgomery walks. Drew Romo scores. Sam Antonacci to 3rd. Miguel Vargas to 2nd.7–4
5Marcus Semien singles on a ground ball to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Eric Wagaman scores.7–3
5Eric Wagaman singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Tristan Peters. Jared Young scores. Eric Wagaman to 2nd.6–3
5Carson Benge homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.5–3
3Andrew Benintendi out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Drew Romo scores.4–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.