Mets at White Sox
Last play · Jake Rogers homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Braden Montgomery scores.
Win probability
White Sox100%
NYM 0%CWS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 4 – 0 CWS
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+116 / -124
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Rogers homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Braden Montgomery scores. (inning 9) — +24% White Sox
9Jake Rogers homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Braden Montgomery scores.4–6
6Colson Montgomery homers (27) on a line drive to right field.4–4
6Randal Grichuk homers (11) on a line drive to left center field.4–3
6Miguel Vargas homers (29) on a fly ball to left field. Munetaka Murakami scores.4–2
5Bo Bichette homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.4–0
4Brett Baty doubles (15) on a line drive to right fielder Tristan Peters. Jared Young scores. Luis Robert Jr. scores.3–0
2Marcus Semien singles on a line drive to left fielder Randal Grichuk. Carson Benge scores. Brett Baty to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
