Twins at White Sox
Last play · Tristan Peters pops out to first baseman Royce Lewis.
Win probability
White Sox0%
MIN 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 5 – 4 CWS
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Jeffers homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Luke Keaschall scores. Kaelen Culpepper scores. (inning 5) — -43% Twins
7Kaelen Culpepper doubles (5) on a line drive to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Luke Keaschall scores.6–4
5Miguel Vargas singles on a line drive to left fielder Gabriel Gonzalez. Chase Meidroth scores. Sam Antonacci to 2nd.5–4
5Ryan Jeffers homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Luke Keaschall scores. Kaelen Culpepper scores.5–3
4Brooks Lee doubles (22) on a line drive to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Josh Bell scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd.2–3
4Kody Clemens grounds into a force out, second baseman Chase Meidroth to shortstop Colson Montgomery. Kaelen Culpepper scores. Josh Bell to 3rd. Royce Lewis out at 2nd. Kody Clemens to 1st.1–3
1Colson Montgomery homers (31) on a line drive to right field.0–3
1Munetaka Murakami homers (30) on a fly ball to left field. Miguel Vargas scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
