Pirates at White Sox
Last play · Colson Montgomery grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
Win probability
White Sox0%
PIT 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 9 – 1 CWS
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -144
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Tristan Peters. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 1) — -16% Pirates
7Colson Montgomery grounds out, shortstop Konnor Griffin to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Andrew Benintendi scores.9–3
6Kyle Teel homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.9–2
5Braden Montgomery singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Andrew Benintendi scores.9–1
5Bryan Reynolds out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Tristan Peters. Jake Mangum scores. Konnor Griffin to 3rd. Brandon Lowe to 2nd.9–0
5Rafael Flores Jr. homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.8–0
2Spencer Horwitz singles on a line drive to center fielder Tristan Peters. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. Esmerlyn Valdez to 2nd.7–0
1Spencer Horwitz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tristan Peters. Esmerlyn Valdez scores.5–0
1Esmerlyn Valdez hits a ground-rule double (14) on a fly ball to right-center field. Oneil Cruz scores.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
