Pirates at White Sox
Last play · Edgar Quero strikes out swinging.
Win probability
White Sox0%
PIT 100%CWS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 0 CWS
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-104 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
White Sox favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 4) — -20% Pirates
8Oneil Cruz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Braden Montgomery. Jared Triolo scores.2–0
4Oneil Cruz homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
