Pirates at Reds
Last play · Eugenio Suárez called out on strikes.
Win probability
Reds0%
PIT 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 6 – 1 CIN
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan O'Hearn homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Joey Bart scores. Oneil Cruz scores. (inning 2) — -25% Pirates
9Oneil Cruz homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Nick Gonzales scores.8–3
8Sal Stewart homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.6–3
8Elly De La Cruz homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.6–2
4Oneil Cruz homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.6–1
3Ke'Bryan Hayes reaches on a fielding error by center fielder Oneil Cruz. Noelvi Marte scores. Jose Trevino to 2nd.5–1
2Bryan Reynolds homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.5–0
2Ryan O'Hearn homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Joey Bart scores. Oneil Cruz scores.4–0
2Nick Yorke out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder TJ Friedl. Nick Gonzales scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
