Pirates at Reds
Last play · Tyler Stephenson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds0%
PIT 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 1 CIN
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Bryan Reynolds scores. Marcell Ozuna scores. (inning 1) — -28% Pirates
9Bryan Reynolds homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Nick Gonzales scores.8–3
9Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to left fielder TJ Friedl. Spencer Horwitz scores. Henry Davis scores. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.6–3
6Eugenio Suárez homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Sal Stewart scores.4–3
6Spencer Horwitz walks. Oneil Cruz scores. Nick Yorke to 3rd. Jared Triolo to 2nd.4–1
4Nathaniel Lowe doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Elly De La Cruz scores.3–1
1Oneil Cruz homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Bryan Reynolds scores. Marcell Ozuna scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
