Giants at Reds
Last play · Sal Stewart strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds0%
SF 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 0 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Chapman doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Spencer Steer. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 7) — -19% Giants
7Casey Schmitt singles on a fly ball to center fielder TJ Friedl. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Heliot Ramos to 3rd.3–0
7Jung Hoo Lee singles on a line drive to left fielder Spencer Steer. Matt Chapman scores.2–0
7Matt Chapman doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Spencer Steer. Luis Arraez scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
