Tigers at Reds
Last play · Nathaniel Lowe homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Spencer Steer scores.
Win probability
Reds100%
DET 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 5 – 2 CIN
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathaniel Lowe homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Spencer Steer scores. (inning 9) — +55% Reds
9Nathaniel Lowe homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Spencer Steer scores.8–9
8Kerry Carpenter homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Colt Keith scores.8–7
8Spencer Torkelson homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.6–7
7Tyler Stephenson doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Nathaniel Lowe scores.5–7
7Nathaniel Lowe reaches on a throwing error by second baseman Javier Báez. Elly De La Cruz scores. Nathaniel Lowe to 2nd.5–6
7Matt McLain homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. Dane Myers scores.5–5
6Nathaniel Lowe homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.5–3
5Matt McLain homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Dane Myers scores.5–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
