Tigers at Reds
DET8–
CIN3Last play · Ke'Bryan Hayes flies out sharply to center fielder Javier Báez.
Win probability
Reds0%
DET 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 2 – 3 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Hao-Yu Lee homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Gleyber Torres scores. (inning 7) — -41% Tigers
8Gleyber Torres homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Kevin McGonigle scores.8–3
7Matt Vierling out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dane Myers. Kerry Carpenter scores.6–3
7Spencer Torkelson homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.5–3
7Hao-Yu Lee homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Gleyber Torres scores.4–3
5Matt McLain doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Kerry Carpenter. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores.2–3
4JJ Bleday homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.2–2
2Nathaniel Lowe homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
1Kerry Carpenter doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Gleyber Torres scores. Riley Greene scores. Spencer Torkelson to 3rd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.