Tigers at Reds
Last play · Kevin McGonigle lines out to center fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Reds100%
DET 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 2 – 6 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Matt McLain scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. (inning 1) — +31% Reds
8TJ Friedl homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.2–9
6Sal Stewart singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wenceel Pérez, deflected by second baseman Javier Báez. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. TJ Friedl scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd.2–8
4Spencer Torkelson homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.2–6
2Elly De La Cruz homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores.1–6
1Nathaniel Lowe homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
1Sal Stewart homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Matt McLain scores. Elly De La Cruz scores.1–3
1Kevin McGonigle homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
