Rockies at Reds
Last play · Hunter Goodman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
COL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 2 – 4 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -199
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Steer homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Elly De La Cruz scores. (inning 1) — +16% Reds
8Nathaniel Lowe singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Sal Stewart scores.2–7
8Elly De La Cruz homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Dane Myers scores.2–6
5Edouard Julien singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Jake McCarthy scores.2–4
3Elly De La Cruz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Mickey Moniak. Dane Myers scores.1–4
3Edouard Julien homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
1Spencer Steer homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Elly De La Cruz scores.0–3
1Elly De La Cruz singles on a fly ball to first baseman Troy Johnston. Dane Myers scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
