Rockies at Reds
Last play · Matt McLain strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds0%
COL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 5 – 0 CIN
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+138 / -167
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Sullivan doubles (5) on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Brenton Doyle scores. Hunter Goodman scores. Willi Castro scores. Brett Sullivan to 3rd. (inning 1) — -28% Rockies
9Will Benson homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Tyler Stephenson scores.13–2
9Brenton Doyle singles on a ground ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Mickey Moniak scores.13–0
9Jordan Beck grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Sal Stewart. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Mickey Moniak to 3rd.12–0
9Mickey Moniak hits a ground-rule double (6) on a line drive to right field. Kyle Karros scores. Ezequiel Tovar to 3rd.11–0
9Ezequiel Tovar singles on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Hunter Goodman scores. Brett Sullivan scores. Kyle Karros to 2nd.10–0
7Kyle Karros out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder TJ Friedl. Willi Castro scores. Brett Sullivan to 3rd.8–0
7Hunter Goodman homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. TJ Rumfield scores.7–0
5Hunter Goodman homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.5–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
