Rockies at Reds
Last play · Hunter Goodman flies out sharply to center fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Reds100%
COL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 2 – 3 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -169
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · TJ Friedl homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Spencer Steer scores. (inning 5) — +30% Reds
9Jake McCarthy out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Will Benson. Troy Johnston scores.4–6
9Mickey Moniak singles on a pop up to right fielder Will Benson. Kyle Karros scores. Troy Johnston to 3rd.3–6
8Spencer Steer doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Tyler Stephenson scores.2–6
8Dane Myers grounds out, second baseman Edouard Julien to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Sal Stewart scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd.2–5
6Spencer Steer singles on a line drive to left fielder Jordan Beck. Nathaniel Lowe scores. JJ Bleday to 3rd.2–4
5TJ Friedl homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Spencer Steer scores.2–3
2Nathaniel Lowe homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
1Tyler Freeman homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Brenton Doyle scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
