Astros at Reds
Last play · Cam Smith grounds out softly, third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Reds100%
HOU 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 3 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -163
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt McLain singles on a line drive to left fielder Zach Cole. Spencer Steer scores. Will Benson scores. Jose Trevino to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder Zach Cole. (inning 5) — +30% Reds
5Elly De La Cruz singles on a line drive to left fielder Zach Cole. Jose Trevino scores. Matt McLain out at home on the throw, left fielder Zach Cole to catcher Christian Vázquez. TJ Friedl to 2nd.1–3
5Matt McLain singles on a line drive to left fielder Zach Cole. Spencer Steer scores. Will Benson scores. Jose Trevino to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder Zach Cole.1–2
5Braden Shewmake homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
