Astros at Reds
Last play · Spencer Steer strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds0%
HOU 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 0 CIN
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Zach Dezenzo homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Brice Matthews scores. (inning 2) — -24% Astros
9Shay Whitcomb singles on a line drive to right fielder Will Benson. Nick Allen scores. Braden Shewmake to 2nd.10–0
9Christian Vázquez homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.9–0
9Zach Cole homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Cam Smith scores. Brice Matthews scores.8–0
8Isaac Paredes grounds out, second baseman Matt McLain to first baseman Sal Stewart. Jose Altuve scores.5–0
6Yordan Alvarez homers (13) on a line drive to right center field. Jose Altuve scores.4–0
2Zach Dezenzo homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Brice Matthews scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
