Nationals at Reds
Last play · Matt McLain pops out to shortstop CJ Abrams.
Win probability
Reds0%
WSH 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 7 – 2 CIN
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis García Jr. homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 5) — -18% Nationals
9JJ Bleday singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder James Wood. Spencer Steer scores. Sal Stewart scores.10–4
9José Tena doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Nasim Nuñez scores.10–2
8Brady House homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Keibert Ruiz scores.9–2
5Daylen Lile homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Brady House scores. Jacob Young scores.7–2
5Luis García Jr. homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.4–2
4Tyler Stephenson reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Brady House. Sal Stewart scores. Matt McLain to 3rd. Will Benson to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Brady House.3–2
4Matt McLain grounds into a force out, second baseman Nasim Nuñez to shortstop CJ Abrams. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. JJ Bleday out at 2nd. Matt McLain to 1st.3–1
4Daylen Lile homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
