Astros at Reds
Last play · Isaac Paredes strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
HOU 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 4 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · JJ Bleday triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 4) — +22% Reds
6Spencer Steer homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.0–5
5Matt McLain walks. Elly De La Cruz scores. JJ Bleday to 3rd. Blake Dunn to 2nd.0–4
4Tyler Stephenson singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. JJ Bleday scores.0–3
4JJ Bleday triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
