Nationals at Reds
Last play · Blake Dunn grounds out, second baseman Curtis Mead to first baseman Luis García Jr.
Win probability
Reds0%
WSH 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 6 – 6 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. CJ Abrams scores. (inning 10) — -44% Nationals
10Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Spencer Steer doubles (7) to left center field, on fan interference. Sal Stewart scores.8–7
10Daylen Lile homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. CJ Abrams scores.8–6
5Luis García Jr. grounds out to first baseman Spencer Steer. Jacob Young scores. Daylen Lile to 3rd.6–6
3TJ Friedl grounds into a force out, second baseman Nasim Nuñez to shortstop CJ Abrams. Spencer Steer scores. Nathaniel Lowe out at 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop CJ Abrams.5–6
3Joey Wiemer walks. Curtis Mead scores. CJ Abrams to 3rd. Jacob Young to 2nd.5–5
2Keibert Ruiz homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Joey Wiemer scores.4–5
2Joey Wiemer doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Will Benson. Jacob Young scores.2–5
2Daylen Lile out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder JJ Bleday. CJ Abrams scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
