Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Nathaniel Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds0%
STL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 1 CIN
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathaniel Lowe homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — +15% Reds
9Bryan Torres homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Masyn Winn scores.8–1
8Iván Herrera triples (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Blake Dunn, deflected by center fielder Dane Myers. Victor Scott II scores.6–1
7Jordan Walker homers (14) on a line drive to right center field. Iván Herrera scores.5–1
4JJ Wetherholt singles on a line drive to second baseman Spencer Steer, deflected by first baseman Nathaniel Lowe. Masyn Winn scores. Bryan Torres to 3rd. Victor Scott II to 2nd.3–1
3Jordan Walker grounds into a force out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to second baseman Spencer Steer. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson out at 2nd. Jordan Walker to 1st.2–1
3Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers, deflected by shortstop Elly De La Cruz. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd.1–1
2Nathaniel Lowe homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
