Nationals at Reds
Last play · Nasim Nuñez flies out to center fielder Dane Myers.
Win probability
Reds100%
WSH 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 9 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt McLain homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Spencer Steer scores. (inning 2) — +20% Reds
8JJ Bleday singles on a fly ball to right fielder José Tena. Will Benson scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd.1–15
8Dane Myers homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt McLain scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores.1–14
8José Tena strikes out swinging.1–11
7JJ Bleday homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Elly De La Cruz scores.0–11
5JJ Bleday homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Elly De La Cruz scores. Spencer Steer scores.0–9
4Ke'Bryan Hayes doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Daylen Lile. Matt McLain scores. Jose Trevino scores.0–6
4Jose Trevino singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jacob Young, deflected by shortstop CJ Abrams. Spencer Steer scores. Blake Dunn scores. Matt McLain to 3rd.0–4
2Matt McLain homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Spencer Steer scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
