Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Umpire reviewed (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Blake Dunn reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Masyn Winn. Spencer Steer scores. Dane Myers to 2nd.
Win probability
Reds100%
STL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 5 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-106 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elly De La Cruz homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. P.J. Higgins scores. Blake Dunn scores. (inning 5) — +40% Reds
11Umpire reviewed (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Blake Dunn reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Masyn Winn. Spencer Steer scores. Dane Myers to 2nd.6–7
9Jordan Walker singles on a ground ball to left fielder Spencer Steer. Victor Scott II scores. Alec Burleson to 2nd.6–6
9José Fermín homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.5–6
6Dane Myers doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Bryan Torres. Spencer Steer scores.4–6
6Jordan Walker homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson scores.4–5
5Nathaniel Lowe homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Sal Stewart scores.1–5
5Elly De La Cruz homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. P.J. Higgins scores. Blake Dunn scores.1–3
2Masyn Winn out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder TJ Friedl. Jordan Walker scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
