Braves at Reds
Last play · Blake Dunn flies out to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski.
Win probability
Reds0%
ATL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 4 – 3 CIN
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. TJ Friedl scores. JJ Bleday to 3rd. (inning 5) — +15% Reds
6Michael Harris II singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Jorge Mateo scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. to 2nd.8–3
6Jorge Mateo singles on a fly ball to left fielder JJ Bleday. Austin Riley scores. Mike Yastrzemski to 3rd. Jorge Mateo to 2nd.6–3
6Mike Yastrzemski doubles (8) on a line drive to right fielder Blake Dunn. Dominic Smith scores. Austin Riley to 3rd.5–3
5Sal Stewart singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. TJ Friedl scores. JJ Bleday to 3rd.4–3
4Nathaniel Lowe homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.4–2
4JJ Bleday homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.4–1
2Michael Harris II singles on a ground ball to right fielder Blake Dunn. Jorge Mateo scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. to 3rd.4–0
2Chadwick Tromp out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Blake Dunn. Austin Riley scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
