Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Michael Toglia called out on strikes.
Win probability
Reds0%
STL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 1 CIN
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-109 / +101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson doubles (32) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Joshua Báez scores. Iván Herrera scores. (inning 1) — -21% Cardinals
4Dane Myers homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
1Alec Burleson doubles (32) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Joshua Báez scores. Iván Herrera scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
