Braves at Reds
Last play · JJ Bleday lines out sharply to center fielder Michael Harris II.
Win probability
Reds0%
ATL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 2 CIN
Braves led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · JJ Bleday homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Spencer Steer scores. (inning 2) — +25% Reds
9Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.5–2
7Matt Olson homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.4–2
5Jorge Mateo homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
3Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
2JJ Bleday homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Spencer Steer scores.1–2
2Mike Yastrzemski singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Ozzie Albies scores. Mauricio Dubón to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
