Braves at Reds
Last play · Matt Olson grounds out, third baseman Sal Stewart to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe.
Win probability
Reds100%
ATL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 4 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Riley out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Blake Dunn. Michael Harris II scores. Ozzie Albies to 3rd. (inning 6) — -14% Braves
9Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Blake Dunn. Dominic Smith scores. Mike Yastrzemski to 2nd.4–6
7Eugenio Suárez homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.3–6
6P.J. Higgins doubles (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Spencer Steer scores.3–5
6Austin Riley out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Blake Dunn. Michael Harris II scores. Ozzie Albies to 3rd.3–4
5Eugenio Suárez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Matt McLain scores.2–4
5Jorge Mateo homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.2–3
4Will Benson doubles (3) on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Spencer Steer scores. Fielding error by right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr.1–3
3JJ Bleday doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Elly De La Cruz scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
