Royals at Reds
Last play · Blake Dunn singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Spencer Steer scores.
Win probability
Reds100%
KC 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 3 – 1 CIN
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+107 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Will Benson homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 9) — +44% Reds
10Blake Dunn singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Spencer Steer scores.3–4
9Will Benson homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.3–3
8Spencer Steer homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.3–2
5Spencer Steer homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
4Michael Massey singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Starling Marte scores. Nick Loftin scores. Tyler Tolbert to 3rd.3–0
4Jac Caglianone grounds out, pitcher Andrew Abbott to second baseman Edwin Arroyo to first baseman Sal Stewart. Salvador Perez scores. Starling Marte to 3rd. Nick Loftin to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
