Royals at Reds
Last play · JJ Bleday strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds0%
KC 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 6 – 1 CIN
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lane Thomas hits a grand slam (2) to left center field. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Jac Caglianone scores. (inning 1) — -38% Royals
9Matt McLain doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Edwin Arroyo scores.9–2
9Nick Loftin out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Will Benson. Lane Thomas scores.9–1
7Michael Massey homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.8–1
6Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Nick Loftin scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd.7–1
5Jac Caglianone homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.6–1
1JJ Bleday homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.4–1
1Lane Thomas hits a grand slam (2) to left center field. Carter Jensen scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Jac Caglianone scores.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
