Royals at Reds
Last play · Blake Dunn flies out to center fielder Lane Thomas.
Win probability
Reds0%
KC 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 2 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+134 / -162
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Massey singles on a line drive to right fielder Will Benson. Tyler Tolbert scores. (inning 9) — -34% Royals
9Nick Loftin homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Michael Massey scores.5–2
9Michael Massey singles on a line drive to right fielder Will Benson. Tyler Tolbert scores.3–2
5Blake Dunn homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Matt McLain scores.2–2
1Vinnie Pasquantino homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
