D-backs at Reds
Last play · Nolan Arenado grounds out, shortstop Edwin Arroyo to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Reds100%
AZ 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 1 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-144 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Noelvi Marte homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 8) — +29% Reds
8Noelvi Marte homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
3Edwin Arroyo singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Matt McLain scores.1–1
1Corbin Carroll homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
