D-backs at Reds
Last play · Sal Stewart grounds out, shortstop Geraldo Perdomo to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas.
Win probability
Reds0%
AZ 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 2 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Reds favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Geraldo Perdomo reaches on a fielding error by left fielder Blake Dunn. Gabriel Moreno scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 3rd. Geraldo Perdomo to 2nd. (inning 9) — -34% D-backs
9Jordan Lawlar singles on a fly ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Ildemaro Vargas scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores.5–2
9Geraldo Perdomo reaches on a fielding error by left fielder Blake Dunn. Gabriel Moreno scores. Ildemaro Vargas to 3rd. Geraldo Perdomo to 2nd.3–2
6LuJames Groover singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Jordan Lawlar scores.2–2
3Reds challenged (stadium boundary call), call on the field was upheld: Reds challenged (other), call on the field was upheld: Eugenio Suárez singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jordan Lawlar. Spencer Steer scores. Eugenio Suárez to 2nd. Throwing error by center fielder Jordan Lawlar.1–2
3Nolan Arenado out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Blake Dunn. Ketel Marte scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd. Gabriel Moreno to 2nd.1–1
2Noelvi Marte homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
